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How has your money in BND done in the last 5 years: oh, -14.93%, not good. Have your dividends at least covered that loss?
ОтветитьRob did you end up getting the Robinhood Gold CC that you discussed in reward CCs last April?
ОтветитьInteresting info re Bonds vs Money Market. Seems like younger investors might be ok staying the course. MM might work best for me at 68. Thanks Rob!
ОтветитьThat cash + stocks portfolio also will tend to be more volatile than stocks + bonds because of the lack of negative correlation. This should be more true now rates are not at rock bottom.
ОтветитьI have a question, are TIPS and Bonds better than HYSA?
ОтветитьThank you. Helpful as always!
ОтветитьA lot of talk about bonds on this video. I think it's important to remember that bonds historically move in very long, often slow cycles where interest rates tend to slowly rise or fall. The technical term for this is a secular bull or bear market. The stock market tends to go through bull and bear market cycles much more frequently. In contrast we just emerged from what was effectively a 40 year bull market in bonds that began when yields peaked back in 1981 when the Fed finally jacked interest rates to astronomical levels to break the galloping inflation of that era, and ended when they fell through the floor in 2020 during the COVID panic. There were fluctuations over those years/decades. But the overall trend was one of slow decline. Prior to that we had a near 30 year bear market when bond rates bottomed in the years immediately following the end of World War II and slowly began to rise as inflation crept up, and then exploded in the 1970s. That bear market ended in 1981. Prior to that we had a secular bull market that ran from roughly the end of the First World War where longer dated US bonds were yielding close to 8%. Then the US went back on the gold standard which quickly eradicated the wartime inflation and bond yields declined slowly over the prosperous 1920s, and then more rapidly during the deflationary 1930s (Depression times) and the war years when the government intervened to keep interest rates well below 3% on the long end of of the curve and less than 1 for shorter term securities.
If this trend is holding, and I believe it is, we are likely in the early stages of a secular bear market that may well last for years or even decades. Can I be sure? No. But history and macro economic trends tend to suggest it is more probable than not. Consider the staggering level of debt at every level of society, including the US Government, coupled with the political situation both in the US and abroad, and I am just not comfortable holding a lot of debt that is much more than 2 years out on the yield curve. YMMV
Thanks, Rob! Your help on these questions is appreciated.
ОтветитьI read Big Ern's article on $0 emergency fund and think it's BS as general advice. It *only works if you have a ton of other resources available*: large investment portfolio, healthy paycheck with large discretionary amounts to cover routine hits like repairs, severance pay, disability and life insurance in case of job loss, good medical insurance in case of illness, pre-approved credit lines to tap instead of selling investments in a down market, AND it assumes that you cannot get some interest on holding cash, which is no longer true...we are still getting 4.x% on T-bills, which when laddered are same a cash. Not impressed. I'll still stop back and see what he has to say, but....
ОтветитьI have two pensions. I would much rather have had a Roth 401k throughout my working lifetime. $500/month invested from 25 - 65 at 9% is $2.3mil. I hate my job but can't leave because of I won't get my state pension. What do you think about doing a 70/30 stocks bond ratio?
ОтветитьHere are the bond funds I use to protect my retirement portfolio:
VBIRX $3,000 Short-Term Bonds
VBILX $3,000 Intermediate-Term Bonds
TLTW $6,910 iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bonds Buy/Write
VWINX $3,000 Stock/Bond Income Fund (40% / 60%)
VBIAX $3,000 Stock/Bond Income Fund (60% / 40%)
Planned future bond fund additions:
KTF $3,000 Municipal Bonds
VIPSX $3,000 Inflation-Protected Securities
VTABX $3,000 Total International Bond Index Fund
Bonds have been hammered over the last 5 years. Why not a dividend fund like schd and actually make a little bit of money and have a yield?
ОтветитьHopefully I'll be able to watch the live with Big ERN.
ОтветитьI just have to say, it never ceases to amaze me every time you talk about BND. I am struck with what a bad investment it is. Over the long haul, it hasn't even kept up with inflation. Over the last 11 years, it has a total return of 1.9%. You say, yeah, but it had a bad year. I say Yeah, It Had A Bad Year! And what a bad year it was. 2024 was 1.4%, are you really happy about 1.4% when inflation is running at 3%. I seek out advice channels like yours, and yours is excellent, but this fixation on BND, I just don't get it!
ОтветитьBond "funds" and "portfolio-protection"? Talk about an OXYMORON. Individual bonds..bought at auction, and held to maturity..now we're talking.
ОтветитьI am about 10 years away from retirement, and plan to have about 2 years of cash in a money market fund. I will use it for large purchases, or to minimize sequence of return risks.
ОтветитьWhat about short-term bond index funds like VBITX? Don't you feel the need to protect against interest rate hikes?
ОтветитьBefore investing, learn the basics: understand asset classes (stocks, bonds, real estate) and their risks. Define your goals—retirement, buying a home, or an emergency fund—to guide your strategy.
ОтветитьRob, great video as always. Thank you sir!!
ОтветитьGreat video! I am unable to access the Investment Tracking spreadsheet. It links to a Net Worth spreadsheet. Am I using the wrong link?
Ответить75 to 80 percentage dtovk index etf, 20 to 25 percent vgsh.
ОтветитьI know this lady you just mentioned. Adriana Genovefa is a portfolio manager and investment advisor. She gained recognition as an employee of neuberger berman; a renowned investor she is. Adriana Genovefa has demonstrated expertise in investment strategies and has been involved in managing portfolios and providing guidance to clients and she has helped me progress in the market lately
ОтветитьI’ve been crushing it in under the money market funds recently, Been debt free for two years thanks to Adriana Genovefa . So sad to see my friends in their 40s with car loans, mortgages and credit card debt.
ОтветитьThis thread has been enlightening so far, some piece of Info I could use
ОтветитьAdriana Genovefa has really set the standard for others to follow, we love her here in Canada 🇨🇦 as she has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
ОтветитьBeen following Rob for some time. I don't recall him ever sharing $FIPDX or $SGOV. I moved Tips and short term money to these ($VTIP instead of $FIPDX) and found lower expense ratios, similar returns. Excellent work Rob. He knows the low-cost good return products. WINNER WINNER
ОтветитьMy social security has been suspended and no one has been able to figure out why. This has happened at a time that the federal work force is bleeding workers. I've been told by my representatives office that it usually takes a month to figure out and resolve the problem. With less workers, it could take much longer. Having an ample emergency fund has helped me to sleep at night - at least for the near term.
ОтветитьI found your discussion on what funds you use in the fixed income portion of your portfolio, and the reasons why to be outstanding. Subscribed.
Great job!
Retirees need to take into account of the money printing by Federal Reserve. Buying bonds can hardly break even with inflation caused by the money printing. As the nation debt increases, Feral Reserve needs to print more and more in the future.
ОтветитьI get if CD rates and high yield savings interest rates go down then probably best to have that $ in a bond fund or equities, but given rates over the last few years, why not use those types of accounts (with all gains remaining in them) in the short-term to diversify too? A steady 3.5-5.5% interest on cash is nothing to sneeze at.
ОтветитьDo the T-bond ETFs provide State Income tax free benefit as the actual treasuries?
ОтветитьThe issue is, if you buy into a bond fund and rates rise. Use a bond ladder instead. Its easy now, google black rock ladder bond etfs. Ibtp is 2034, I believe.
ОтветитьYour money in bonds is being stolen by the rate of decline in the dollar’s purchasing power vs the return in the bond fund. The dollar has lost 50% of its purchasing power since 2016. Do you ever take this into account in your analysis?
Ответитьshould you cover TLT in a lowering interest rate environment?
ОтветитьI honestly love your vids Rob, however I think you're fairly wrong about the inflation protected bonds, in 2022 and beyond, you gained no protection and inflation was rampant
Ответить10 year return on the Vanguard Bond fund 7.9%. TIPS get hammered when interest rates rise due to inflation. Your better off in a money market fund or high interest savings account.
ОтветитьBND is down 2.72% since 2007. The money has been tied up for 18 years and has lost money. If you include inflation, yikes. Inflation since 2007 is 50%. This is according to google finance.
ОтветитьInvesting in a bond fund is a terrible idea. It’s garbage. It is not a safe investment. You can loose money. Investing in treasuries, CD or a muni bond ladder is far better. Ie purchase actual bonds.
ОтветитьYour bond funds are garbage.
ОтветитьWhy not individual bonds, so at least you're getting your principal back with investment grade bonds?
ОтветитьInformative as always.
ОтветитьThanks for indexing, love this format
ОтветитьI Hit $32,590 today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last week. i started with 5k in last week 2025... now i just hit $32,590
ОтветитьDoes VBIL get the same tax treatment as individual treasury bonds?
ОтветитьIn one of your videos you recommend holding Real Estate (VNQ for example) in a tax deferred account due to the payout requirements. Do bonds and other higher yielding securities follow this same recommendation or are REITs a special exception?
ОтветитьJust curious, why buy bond ETFs when buying T-Bills is no state tax on interest (depending on state)?
ОтветитьGreat info! What is the best short-term bond to park emergency funds right now?
ОтветитьBond funds can be a great hedge against stock market volatility, but with interest rates still unpredictable, how are others adjusting their allocations? I’ve been leaning into short-duration bonds lately
ОтветитьCan we trust the Trump administration (or any administration) to be truthful about inflation rates? They are talking about redefining GDP to exclude government expenditures to hide the effect of cutting spending. They are saying to ignore gold imports for the purpose of GDP. Why wouldn't he lie about inflation to hide the effect of tariffs? They are also bragging about taking short term pain (recession) to get interest rates down. Seems like you should get the highest rates you can with reasonable risk before rates go down. TLT (10 year treasuries) could be a big winner if Bessent is successful at bringing down the 10 year rate. Risking recession (bad for stocks) in order to refinance America's debt (good for bonds) seems to be their plan. For investors, it usually pays to not fight the government. I'll go with regular Treasuries over TIPS in this environment.
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