The Best Trading Strategy - Laying Over 3.5 Goals

I am a brit living in Bulgaria, I joined betfair on the day it launched and I actually found lay the draw by myself although didn't declare I invented it, it was actually quite a good system back then but very laborious as I was working and it was very time consuming. Back then suspended meant something really happened.

Hi mate, this strategy is interesting but sometimes your position is open during 10+ min which is very dangerous because it’s quite long and the probability to see a goal isn’t that low.

Isn’t it better to do it on the 1X2 market ? For example on the draw in 2nd half if a team is 1 goal behind. It would require some investigations to find the best time bracket to do it (probably at the beginning of 2nd half) but this way, you protect yourself in case of a goal. If the leading team is scoring, your trade will be even better. If the other team scores the equalizer, it might be a bigger loss. Did you ever try it ?

What websites or software do u use as well

Do u guys have a website or on social media etc and do u have an app or got your own software

hi nice video and seems a nice risk averse betting strategy.... do you watch the games live? Would you wait to make sure there was no VAR reversing a goal - or just trade out as soon as you see a goal is scored?

hey, this a great video and has become my favourite trading strategy

I am currently only using £5 stakes to perfect a technique which works for me, however i do have a concern about my cashout prices which seem strange, for example:

bet A - £5 bet. 3.3 entry 3.9 exit = £0.36 cashout (£11.50 liability)
bet B - £5 bet. 3.55 entry 4.1 exit = £0.56 cashout (£12.75 liability)

i would assume my cashout prices would be more similar, no?

what factors affect this other than the maths side, do different leagues have different commissions? liquidity was high on all my bets. is having such small stakes an issue? i dont see why it would. i followed the strategy by having my back bet at higher decimals than the lay.

I'm new to this so please share your thoughts on how prices fluctuate for cashouts

Jonathan here watching from Uganda thanks alot for such a wonderful strtegy lecture i have been finding it hard to make profitable trades on a consistent basis i am sure after watching this video i will see a change thanks

is the main reason going between odds of 3 and 4 as below this it will take longer for odds to start drifting for profit and above it because of the increased liability and exposure to the market ive done quite a bit of tennis trading successfully just trying a bit of footie as tennis slowing down now

al give this ago seems like nice little number

Hello my name is JEAN CLAUDE I am French and I translate with GOOGLE, I only trade OVER 2.5 for the moment, like a bet by adding 10 tics, I started in July I have 215 bets and a ROI of 12% , I pay a subscription to a site that already gives me all the statistics but what interests me about you are the different additional techniques that will be able to occupy my days, I'm looking to register on discord although I only speak the French (laughs)

Hey guys, great content. I have a question : once you made your lay bet how do you decide / calculate how many back bets you need to do on every 0.1 above the lay bets? In your at 6.25min you have a £50 lay stake and then you go on and make 5 x £10 back bets ? In fact the lay odds in that 6.25min example are made with step up every 0.2 and in the live example they are made with a step up every 0.1 .It will be great if you could let me know . Thanks again for the insightful video!

Hi! My name is Rodrigo and I'm from Brazil. The video is very interesting. Do you think it is more appropriate to use this technique in games with teams with a tendency to over or under goals?

Hi James the strategy you lay out in the video is to give the lowest risk to reward but when I look at your spreadsheet it deviates a lot from this, this will be based on knowledge you have gained from trading but can I still make good profits by sticking to the strategy?

Hi James I was wondering if you could advice please. I have seen another video that there is a way to possibly reduce your loss over the game, this lay over 3.5 goals method was carried out at the beginning of the match and not the 10th minutes but the principle should remain. This method entails backing over 3.5 goals for the same stake as you lay if a goal goes in, and hoping there are no more goals otherwise liability could be worse than cashing out, but if no further goals are scored the loss reduces. Using your method if I lay over 3.5 goals after 10 minutes for £50, then stagger 5x £10 back bets every couple of ticks, if I get the first 3 matched but had two bets unmatched when a goal is scored, would backing over 3.5 goals for the remaining £20 work in the same way? Thanks for these videos they're priceless!

Well this sounds awesome, can't wait to try it!

Great video watching from sweden

Is there any videos on explaining how to back bet, struggling to get my head around it, thanks

I am a member of WISPRED group for one year and I made totally 15k$ and bought myself a brand new car, so guys, I recommend you to invest in their knowledge

A good strategy. I'm just wondering why not just back unders, then cash out after 10 mins or so?

Hello, excellent video, thank you very much for sharing this strategy, I'm from Argentina and I'll start watching your other videos, and I'm going to start applying this method.
I have always been losing my bank for 10 years and never made a profit, always going bust and going bust, luckily I don't deposit a lot every time, but over the years I have already lost about 5K usd. I have not had any money problem in the past since I was active at work, but today I am retired and I will have to be more careful and disciplined, I hope your strategies work for me. In a few months I'll tell you how it went. Thank you very much again for your very instructive videos!!!

Why don't you win on 0-0 on lay under 1.5

I appreciate this isn’t the game plan, however, do you ever wonder what the stats/P&L would be If you ran your winners to Half time and full time? It would just be 2 extra Colin’s on your spread sheet to fill in..

is the excel spreadsheet available?

Hi, I like your method it’s got a few options to it as long as you don’t get stung before back bets are placed.
How severe can the hit be on that happening? As you trade out early it’s a small return, say 10 per cent which add up no question. But the question I have is if all where lay at 4 and backed at one tick up on the backs but they didn’t get the chance, what’s the back price going to be as to your exit loss?
I must say I have been testing this and it works no question but this loss possibility could mean your a busy fool? Hopefully your response proves me wrong 👍

Just discovered the Channel. Will give it a try! I feel no-nonsense does what it says on the tin vibes.

That looks an amazing way to trade I’m gonna look at this myself 🤑

Why ten minutes? No offense but seems a bit arbitary.

Hello TTM, why do you lay the over 3.5 rarther than back under 3.5 please?

Great video.. what determines your stake as your not using the same amount each time and there appears to many different stake amounts? Cheeres

why shoud you lay over 3,5 goals , you can just back under 3,5 and it is the same thing

Great video, as always. Can I just ask a quick question on your staking plan for this strategy? I noticed form your spreadsheet that you lay stakes, and therefore your liabilities, vary greatly and don't seem to correspond with the lay odds. I was just wondering if you could elaborate more in this?

Serbia and thank you so much for this free videos and lessons you are the best 🍻💪

Great video - best I've seen - no jargon.

Pie in the sky numbers for the profitability and really unsound logic as a whole. The only way to trade profitably is for your bets to have a positive EV when placed and this logic gives you no idea whatsoever that each of your bets have such an EV. And if you're going on the BF market as a whole without really understanding why the odds are as they are you're doomed. Follow this at your peril but the likelihood is that it is a long term losing strategy without further data to back up your selections. Mentioning 'not many shots at goal' and other generalisations means nothing at all.

cant you also back under 3.5 goals for the same profit ?

great video thanks, will give this a go, I just can't understand on the back bets why you do 4 x £5 stakes? the back price has risen so surely you are over buying on the back price? then potentially losing a tiny bit before cashing it out?

you said you did not like the bots i use fairbot and to use it i find it very useful for the way you teach it on the ladder great its a lot quicker than on betfair platform

Great video ! Thank you

Thanks mate. Here from Norway. Gonna try this out and give some feedback. Thanks!

Clear and concise unlike the waffle on another YT channel....

In the spreadsheet you show in the end. This inlcudes other trades as well? The concept might be the same but seems like you include trades where you lay Over4.5 when the scoreline is 1-3 for instance.

After watching weeks of trading videos on YT . probably best, most detailed and most sound advise so far - Thanks a lot - I'll buy you a pint some day :-)

u still winning with this james?

slovak guy living denmark

Tasmania, Australia. Will give this a try. Thanks for your time & detailed explanation

I have a problem. Many times if goal is scored i dont have option to cash out

Greece, Athens, thank you !!!

For odds between decimal 3 and 4: prematch or inplay odds?