So, Perk Weighting Might Actually Be Real...?

There has to be some unintentional "law of averages " type thing going on

This just proves that nothing is truly random.

Just give me my godroll so I can log off, bro.

I swear after the hundreds of runs I did in lost sector for a Heliocentric healclip incandecent just REFUSED to drop. I had to run expert or whatever for double rolls and it still took a while before it finally gave me the roll just ONCE. Even if the barrel/mag was bad, just never saw it drop once. The one I finally got is the only time I ever saw have heal/incant roll

Damn cutie patootie

I predict perk weighting gets fixed/patched/addressed before tether.

hey skarrow, you could run a t test using the statistical data collected by that farming tracker. that would give you a probability of the drops being truly random for a given weapon

From one metal head to another, love your videos. Keep it metal bro.

No one in their right mind should trust bungie and this is what you wanted right you wanted crafting gone so welcome to rng you fucking clown

There's no bug. This is how they inflate play time and now they're going to try to put their hands in the air and act dumb founded and innocent. They're a company,not our friends. They only care about how long we play and how much money we spend.

Just came from watching Aztecross vid. Thanks for shedding light on this.

Did I miss something? These are weapons players kept, right? It would stand to reason those with the worse perk combos are going to be lower. However, I don't see a reason to have bait and switch on a deadlock but all but two of mine had it. If perks are random, what are the odds of 4 of 6 had bait and switch.

been farming blast furnace KT and frenzy since onslaught released and still don’t have it lm convinced

We all here forgetting that time they deliberately put a limit on XP gains from farming public events but kept the same numbers displaying to make us think otherwise.

The mountaintop has ALH and recomb right next to each other, am I wrong?

So off topic, but is that an I Prevail hoodie?

I liked your whole approach and take. Thank you for being level headed with these findings and not doom posting or knob gobbling.

We ALL need to be adding our Farming data to this site how do I sign up?

If the data in the matrix is correct, there's clearly a statistical correlation between the perks, but what the Bungie employee claims can still be true-- the rows each add up to roughly the same, as well as the columns, which means that the individual perk probabilities are equal, i.e. "there is no perk weighting"
The fact that there is a correlation means that certain combinations of perks are less (or more) likely. This could be by mistake or by design. Either could be true. In my experience as a game dev, I'd say it is highly probable that it's a mistake.

Been trying to farm onslaught for that Edge Transit and I can confidently say that this man is telling the truth

Maybe the reason the evidence is less convincing for older weapons is that people had time to farm the exact roll they want so there is more biais towards good perks

Well I imediatelly delete anything that is not S-A on Light GG. Call me an idiot but I have a baby and I dont have any time to waste to keep thing I may need in future. So If everybody does that. It will show data exactly as in your graph. Popular perks are in the middle. It does not explain the distance in the colums though.

Come on guys dont we already know at this point that Destiny 2 is a scummy triple A mobile game? 😂

Don't be so defenses. Everything you say is based on numbers. Actual evidence. Ignore the fanboys!

amazing new ARG 100/100

Im a really new player, and i didnt know there was an rng system for perk rolls. Just based on my experience playing the game i had assumed that some rolls were just more/less rare and just rolled with it. Not hard evidence of anything obviously, but i think its funny

I have a question that the answer to it COULD potentially argue against this theory?
Q:
When does the role tracking site update?
Does it update every few minutes?
Does it update every time a player logs off of the game? (This is how the Runescape high scores work, so it made me think of this possibility)
Is it possible that the player receiving these roles are just deleting the bad roles/roles they dont want before the site has a chance to track it?

After thinking through this idea a bit while typing it, I am not sure it really applies, but still something MAYBE worth thinking about/taking into consideration.
🤷‍♂

Incredible thumbnail

1) it’s totally intentional on Bungie’s part, because setting lower drop rates on the best perks, lenghtens farming and therefore creates arrificial time life, even if it’s the worst kind of farming there is, doing the same thing over and over again.

2) I’ll go even further, because in addition to this, Thérèse a multiplier via the algorithm that measures playing time and regularity of presence on the game, favoring blueberries and players who return to the game after a period of absence, to lure them in !

I’m just enjoying all the hell Bungo is catching. Ahhh I would say karma but…nah.

great video, Skarrow. This is some pretty wild stuff. I still remember when I watched your video on how to well skate a couple years ago. Forgot to sub until now. Cheers mate!

Skarrow this is a great video and it got me thinking. Is the reason that the drop rates for certain perks are so bad because the player base since lightfall has dropped incredibly low compared to when the game was at its most popular?

I do believe they are weighted in the sense it's what you gets you constantly farming the game which ultimately isnt that what bungie wants is to do to "keep us playing"

Stop letting Bungie gaslight you.

Bro can you also check the rolls on exotic class items, I think they are also bugged. 3 weeks in a row , I focused them and out of four I get two with the desired perk with attunement on, and the other perk is the same , so 2 duplicates and two that had not the attachment perk, this is very fishy.

This got me thinking about what they would use to seed their randomness. It’s really common to use time, often seconds from start, often that ends up being from the start of some os like Linux. But using time would result in everyone getting the same roll, so you’d need to stir the pot more. I always felt like certain people among my friends would get rolls so I wondered if they use time and your name.

If they did use your name as as a starting point then used time this would give variability, and then if it moved through the list of options a random number of times you might expect to see something like pulling a few engrams from a vendor in sequence resulting in very similar rolls, which happens all the time. And then also expect that if the randomness is using time you’d have some connection based variability or even framerate based variability and then the rolls being calculated in a sequential way, as some number of iterations through the perk pool, the proximity thing then would start to make sense, as the randomness would be programmatically mimicking something like wheel of fortune where you roll by spinning one wheel then the other but always from the same starting position.

Basically it’s easy to see how every perk could have equal weight but a plausible system could result in proximity weighting.

Basically it suggests that they roll perks individually and sequentially instead of rolling the entire gun all at once.

VINDICATED! lets go X)

on chill inhibitor, makes sense me getting several demo-one for alls then, I like the gun, the roll is meh but better then ive gotten, shame no arsenal+light, that would have been a bit nicer for me but ah well

The people that made the claw machine never admitted the game is rigged. There isn't skill involved. Why wouldn't they outright admit it? Very easy, because the community would be in an uproar about it. It's deceitful and the entire point of red borders was just in case of bad RNG and out of 100+ weapons I've gotten the god roll twice before completing the pattern. So they have a lot of incentive to weight perks and not tell anyone. And saying they dont have the capability to do that tells me they 100% were doing it.

I won't take this Liminal Vigil slander, literally my favorite side arm that i never got my god roll of. It's beautiful and tap the trigger is the best burst side arm perk. Go try it

easy fix...aleatory perk valor
it is fixed right now and that is what u get from rng

Here i just want a solar auto riffle with demolitionist

you suck

just thought id be that guy...

Weighting is 100% a thing. Out of the last 20 Exotic Titan Marks I’ve rolled 9 with Eternal Warrior Synth..even got 4 of them in a row. Twice, I got back-to-back Severance Synth in a row(4 total). The statistical probability of either of those instances independently occurring is astronomical!

The whole game is weighted! Pinnacle drops, certain weapons, and yes weapon perks. I think we all know this on some level. It's very intentional, it's all code. Let's bring this bs into the light.

And now we got god rolls. Thank you skarrow