Could Chinese military conquer Taiwan within a year? Part 2/2

Seems clear to me that if China were to attempt this, all of the preparation you mention would be undertaken beforehand, in as much secrecy as possible. I’m not sure how advanced Taiwanese/American satellite tech is. But you’d think they’d be able to detect a Chinese build up of naval landing assets across the straights, to know approximately when China would be ready to begin the amphibious assault on day 1 of the declared war. Especially considering the fact that I doubt the US would be neutral, it seems to me that surprise and an immediate launch would be crucial. Comparable to the Japanese operations in this theater during the last war.

China would suffer financially to such an extent their economy would collapse. Since they are a global economy and depend on global banking, any obstruction of that financial chain will collapse the system. Any drop in global commerce would amplify the collapse. It would be suicide economically and would take decades to repair.

taiwan will be end of china if china ever did this mistake china will be doomed

What if china builds or is in the process of building 200miles of tunnels right into the center of Taiwan? :D

What about rocket projectors (MLRS) ?, and other types of Chinese long-range artillery.

You definitely need to update this analysis.

Amazing detail. I'm sure the PLA had to check this out to see how they'd fair. PLA: Damn! Xi: I'm done. For the CCP, a failed invasion would be worse than no invasion. I'm surprised the CCP doesn't just bribe the government officials in Taiwan. That approach worked great in the US. Taiwanese officials must have integrity.

If war becomes inevitable, China will not play games. Taiwan is not important and will be finished in one week. China would give both Japan and South Korea an ultimatum, otherwise China will destroy them and make sure that those neighbors will never be hostile again.

Yes China could easily invade Taiwan, but this would come at a high cost. The Chinese image and popularity is already at its lowest, its economy is at a dangerous peak. Invading Taiwan would certainly destabilise the whole pacific area and isolate China on the international level. The best option is to leave Taiwan alone and focus on their internal economy, where much is to be done. Besides, even if the US supports Taiwan in terms of military build up, they will not interveign against China directly.

It makes me sad for places like Taiwan and Ukraine may they keep there country !!!

Even without the US (which won't happen), with Japan and other counties supporting Taiwan, it is unlikely PRC would successfully take over Taiwan. With US it's not a question. The video doesn't take weather into account. Which plays a big role in sea invasion. It's not even good to compare normandy landing since the distance is far shorter than to Taiwan, and it's a completely different scenario. Since it is a "fight back" scenario instead of a pure "invasion" scenario here. France was just trying to retake its land and is fighting in its homeland. China isn't fighting in its homeland. Also a blockade around taiwan would mean taiwan starts attacking the blockade which means PRC cannot do a 10 month blockade. And such as blockade would make US and its allies not neutral anymore, since blockade could possibly led to confrontation of ships with US. US would not be neutral in that case. Game over for PRC. If anything amphibious invasion is far harder than you think, as there isn't even many real world examples. Again, you can't compare normandy landing to this. This is in a completely different level and scenario. Not to mention PRC has zero experience in this.

This is hilariously out dated! Hard to believe in just 4 years the capabilities of china had more then tripled! Also Taiwan has also come up a good bit with their own. Thanks to the Abrams tanks Trump sold them.
Regardless I can't see us staying out of this. The USA wants to see Taiwan become an independent country. At least the people here do! So I believe firmly we would fight beside Taiwan. So China while far more advanced then 4 years ago, they would still need to contend with the US Navy at the same time. So probably not the smartet move on Chinese military leaders part.

All China has to do is drop a atom bomb on them and they'd fold like Japan did
. no need to drag it out

I am somewhat confused. Cant china just bomb taiwan until their government and military surrenders, and only then put boots on the ground, invading only when there is no resistance?

this is US channel. the one who lost a war in Afghanistan and Vietnam.
in reality. china can conquer Taiwan. the American social media always lie about china because they are getting jealous of Chinese. believe me or not. Chinese is top 1 strongest country on earth

Here because Taiwan might be next

Any naval invasion across the western Pacific Ocean can not go well if you can’t succeed in 3 months, there will be typhoons (hurricanes) which will devastate any fleet on ocean. So the containment strategy isn’t gonna work. With global climate change, huge thunderstorms are more common in Winter and Spring as well, so even if the Chinese launches the attack at the end of Fall, there are still chances that they might run into huge tropical storms if not a typhoon, and since Taiwanese has been regularly dealing with such storms, they’ll mostly not be effected by them while some of the Chinese troops pulled from regions that aren’t usually familiar with the climate may suffer from it.
In the history of mankind, Mongolian Empire (who at the time controls most of continent of Asia) tried to invade Japan but got destroyed by typhoon during the campaign. Which later the Japanese people called the typhoon “Kamikaze” (the wind of god) and later used the name for their suicide squadrons in the WW2 since they were fighting the US, an another great nations.

2022.03.08
Ukraine is now under invasion by Russia

Thousands of missiles, hundreds of the most modern fighters, two aircraft carrier battle groups, many submarines, satellite coverage and high morale PLA soldiers.. Taiwan will fall within three days. The most elite force, the 38th army, the Marine Corps, beat down the separatists in street fighting. What a beautiful wait🤣

Thousands of missiles, hundreds of the most modern fighters, two aircraft carrier battle groups, many submarines, satellite coverage and high morale PLA soldiers.. Taiwan will fall within three days. The most elite force, the 38th army, the Marine Corps, beat down the separatists in street fighting. What a beautiful wait😂

Thousands of missiles, hundreds of the most modern fighters, two aircraft carrier battle groups, many submarines, satellite coverage and high morale PLA soldiers.. Taiwan will fall within three days. The most elite force, the 38th army, the Marine Corps, beat down the separatists in street fighting. What a beautiful wait☺☺

I just cannot think of a scenario where the chinese gain complete air superiority. We have seen many times now how hard sead missions are. Even the best air forces of the Nato struggled in Iraq for example and Russia is not even trying. And also amphibious landings are incredibly hard and Taiwan would have a big manpower advantage on the ground for sure. China could manage it, but it would last very long and get very bloody. They could even fail. I dont think China would really consider doing a large scale invasion, since they should now that it is very hard and nearly impossible.

If Taiwan would be in war and TSMC would not produce chips anymore gg to the whole worlds economy.

What if you INVADE your own home?

If China wants to simultaneously Destroy and Isolate itself from the rest of the World (See Russia) Go ahead and attack Taiwan. Then China and Russia can be Frenemies and sell each other hats back and forth for decades to come.

Seriously though, India will replace China and become the world’s Manufacturing Center, taking all the Chinese Manufacturing and export Dollars and putting it in India. China cannot live without their Manufacturing and Export Economy. Without it, they will lose all they’ve gained in 30 years and fall back into what China has Historically been in 30 months.

And don’t think China’s mainland won’t be hit, particularly any Rice Paddies and Rice/Grain storage facilities. These places are already known of, mapped and ready to get tuned up. Starvation is a hell of a morale killer. It’s a hell of a killer in general, especially for the most populated Country on Earth. A humanitarian crisis of epic proportions would result for the People of China. Chaos would ensue.

The Taiwanese have been waiting for China for 60 years and Taiwan is pretty much a massive version of Iwo Jima but with a massive civilian (Insurgent) population that will fight and die for a free Taiwan.Their Military is better than most realize, and they have some aces up their sleeves as well.

China will also be dealing with the US, Japan, South Korea the UK and others.

As the Russians are finding out; Never, Ever underestimate the Will and determination of a man defending his family, Culture, and homeland.

🇹🇼

6 months? This is foolish. They will swamp it in under a week and it's gg.

It’s almost like invading a castle you have to have a 3-1 advantage to siege

China will only month/s to conquer Taiwan. First, destroy their military base, runways, fuel depot aircraft, navy, food warehouses with hypersonic missiles. 2nd, Put underwater mines in all ports preventing resupply/reinforcements. Declare a "No Fly Zone" over Taiwan. After Taiwan ran out of oil, gas and food, Taiwan would capitulate. None or very few Chinese will be killed.

This is bjllshit, with all respect taiwan cant withstand with all power will come from china ....

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In reality -- China has no chance of winning an invasion of Taiwan.
BUT... North Korea.
If North Korea launches an attack on South Korea - two things will happen:
1) Millions die on the first day - including a ton of US military.
2) The US would be severely distracted from defending Taiwan.
However... Taiwan won't need a LOT of help to keep China at bay. So that's not the problem.
The problem is that North Korea will most likely use Chemical Weapons and give the US an excuse to use Tactical Nukes.
And once that happens -- all of the fighting ends pretty quickly.
But there won't be a winner.

Considering how the US/NATO chose not to get involved (directly) in Ukraine beyond giving weapons and supplying intel, I now cannot see why anyone believes the US (despite it having committed to defending Taiwan) would actually follow through and initiate combat between US and Chinese forces. If the US is too scared to fight Russia because of the threat of nuclear war when there is actual war literally in Europe, it makes no sense to think the US would help Taiwan, which is nowhere near the US or any other Western countries.

I think the US would end up thinking "it's not worth it" and let China have its way. Plus Taiwan is an island so it would be practically impossible to arm Taiwan from the outside. Also, it's not like Ukraine where both sides are using more or less the same equipment and thus can easily capture each other's tanks for their own use.

I'm also not sure I agree with the idea that an amphibious landing would be practically impossible. China could just bomb/missile strike Taiwan into oblivion and then invade once it is essentially scorched earth. If people think China wants TSMC or something then they are obviously naive. China ended up not caring about Hong Kong's financial center. They imposed crazy national security laws anyway (and drove out a lot of talent) because being in control (for the CCP) will always be more important than a few dollars here and there.

What if they use nukes?

Here we are in 2022, and still Taiwan survives after all the threats and propaganda of China... but nothing has changed. China's military is stronger no question, but still not strong enough for an amphibious assault of an island which not only has upwards of 1.3million soldiers on the ground when it calls everyone up, but also terrain and entrenched defences. For all of China's might, there's no guarantee of victory, but certain guarantee of very heavy losses and domestic kick back because of it.

Autocratic leadership is fine in populous control when you have the imagery of strength... but will collapse when this war drags on much longer than the people have been conditioned to believe. Russia is case in point. Domestic support for Ukraine's invasion is plummeting, and Russia (another "superpower" against a much smaller neighbour) has the advantage of an unlimited land bridge between the two nations. And even with that they are finding it difficult to maintain supply lines.

China's main problem isn't getting to Taiwan... it's holding Taiwan. It would suffer catastrophic losses, and get virtually nothing in return if it wins. It's not like it's attacking Australia, and has the natural resources and land mass to expand into a global force for centuries to come. Taiwan doesn't give anything to China other than 'reunification'... and would then spend billions in holding it unified. It's simply not worth the gamble at all. The only reason China continues to talk big is because it doesn't want the US setting up missiles there (like Russia into Cuba). As long as US stays out of Taiwan, China isn't going in. They'd be mad to do it. Russia went into Ukraine for its resources (it's going to feed and power Russia for decades if successful). Taiwan has no such carrot. Just cost. Immense cost.

Bruh.Our contry is not called Taiwan but Republic of China.We are the China which lost in the China civil war,and that's why we fled to Taiwan.

I dont think war will happen as long as america is strong and dont getting weak the united states is the symbol of the worlds stability even china will not dare to fight the us in a serious comfrontation because china knows very will that america is very dangerous enemy no nation on earth have the knowledge of how far the us had upgraded its military capabilities since ww2 the most fatal here is the many surprises the us had to finnish the would be war if any

What's to keep China from a 3 to 6 month bombing campaign only on residential and military targets. Leaving all infrastructure. They could do the majority of this from mainland China after 6 months of this if they have not given up (which most likely they will have) they use AI drones and traditional drones. They will brake t h e resolve of the people and then with hardly any casualties and the island devastated start the invasion. That seems more likely.

Klendathu drop music 😂

lol...considering thar china depends on exports to survive a naval blockage would be the imediat bankrupcy and famine in the sordid comunist dictatorship!...

Why not listen to part 2 LoL

Hands-off Taiwan!
Stay home china... You government is not big enough to take on The world...

Hold air up think deep hold sound wham do eff mind u

i will say this is wrong, China would not attack without using loads of missiles and China has around 400 to 500 aircrafts

The fact that this one year timeline is already so tight shows that rearming and refortifying Kinmen is a good bet for the Taiwanese military, preferably with older and lower quality equipment just to delay the invasion

There are 3 strategic phase to the PLA invasion., Phase A is to prevent PLA landing. Phase 2 is to thwart the PLA from progress if they managed to land successfully. Phase 3 involves a retreat to a military command in the Jungle/Mountain JM. WW2 Japan won the Malayan War in early 1942 partially because the Allied forces had no jungle warfare strategy.This JM strategy would involve training now, the positioning of caches of arms and food at strategic locations.
Taiwan should store its planes in USA and Australia. I suspect the PLA would make a roar in the East but attack the West.

China's economy is going into the gutter so what does dictatorships do in these situations? Distract the population by blaming external factors. I hope Taiwan the best of luck on rebelling the evil CCP.

Wonder how this would play out in 2024 with the same rules

A year? Six years ago a PLA general Wang Hongguang said China could end the unification war within three days.He said the US military didn't even dare to fight with China in the first island chain. He also said the US military in the first island chain,even with the military in the 2nd and 3rd island chain are still not enough to stop China from taking Taiwan. If the US wanted to stop China,it must deploy troops from bases around the world.

Taiwan still has many weaknesses its sub fleet is dwarfed by China , its 4 destroyers are almost completely out of date... built in the 70s and they have nothing to replace them. Its funny how China military in 1990 was very out of date in technology but now the Taiwan military is more out of date than China when you compare Air force Navy Army