Will China INVADE Taiwan in 2025? 1st Group Green Beret breaks down likelihood.

Your audience cant even find taiwan on the map.

Hong Kong was a British territory. Nothing to do with USA. It was given back to Chinese by Britain.

Taiwanese here,love your take on the cross strait tension.Curious about your take on various Taiwan special units(sf,101 amphibious recon,assc)(npasog)? Some say they are very incompetent some say are actually pretty good. Since you served in 1sfg you probably trained with them previously, wondering your take on them?thanks!

Taiwan has the advantage of intensity, all that equipment is consolidated onto one island, while china has an entire nation to defend from AUKS when the fighting kicks off.

Why white dude always want to see brown or black dude fight and kill each other. What is your problem?

*restore order

Yo Nate, I heard you say in the 'Ones Ready' podcast interview that you wonder why people are interested in your videos or watch them. Personally, I was enlisted at the same time you were and have strong ties to the Army. Also, it's because I have always been interested in Marine Raiders, being a Marine myself. I wondered how the different groups compared to the Marine Raiders and MARSOC, and have found the Green Berets to be similar, while still unique. Your input on almost every topic is also therefore unique and interesting. Thanks, Nate.

I like how you pointed out the economic downside of China trying to take Taiwan. It is a super big deal, so thanks for pointing that out. Rock on Sir!

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China will not invade Taiwan 2025

Thank you for covering this. Most people are focused on Russia-Ukraine which is understandable but the situation in the Pacific is not getting the attention it deserves.

Australia and New Zealand aren’t strong military powers lol. Also have you not seen the American government push Russia into China’s hands? Siberia is China’s resource heavy backyard. Siberia will be playing an intregal part of China’s war machine. For a military dude, your analysis wasn’t very strong

Frankly, the Taiwan controversy was only a continuation of the Chinese Civil War (1946-1950). Most democracies sympathize with Taiwan simply out of values. I think if the U.S. military forces in the Asia-Pacific region are not directly involved in the war in Taiwan. Taiwan will be completely occupied by the PLA within a week. And the thinking of most Taiwanese is extremely naïve. They know almost nothing about military affairs. Because Taiwanese army is not at all an equal in magnitude opponent of the PLA. Taiwan is not Ukraine. Taiwan is an island. If the PLA begins to attack Taiwan, it will definitely set up a no-fly zone and a no-voyage zone. And dispatch all naval and air forces to guard the perimeter. This means that U.S and Japanese transport aircraft and transport ships cannot come close to the island. It is impossible to give Taiwan more weapons and equipment. And the area of Taiwan is less than 5% of Ukraine. And Taiwan does not have strategic depth. The war is also unlikely to drag on like Ukraine. China will only fight a quick victory. If the U.S military in the Asia-Pacific is involved War in Taiwan. Then all U.S military bases in Japan and South Korea, as well as in Southeast Asia, will be devastated. However, if Washington escalates further, the world will be on the brink of all-out nuclear war. Washington's actions in the light of the war in Ukraine. I do not think that the U.S military will be directly involved in the war in Taiwan. Because it's not sane and not cost-effective.🧐🧐🧐

China cannot invade itself.


What is Taiwan's official name?

Taiwan's official name is "Republic of China" .


Read the Republic of China 's (Taiwan) own constitution.

The Republic of China's (Taiwan) own constitution states that Taiwan is a part of China.

Not only does Taiwan's own constitution state that Taiwan is a part of China it also calls for the Reunification with Mainland China.

Plus under Taiwan's own constitution secessionism is illegal.

As a matter of fact up until the late 1980s if you called for Independence of Taiwan from China you would be arrested for sedition and treason in Taiwan.

Taiwanese passports, birth certificates, Banks, official money, airlines, and all cabinet Ministrers have the word China in their names or the word China written on them.


Even Taiwan's military is named after China.

Taiwan's military is named Republic of China Armed forces.


The government of Taiwan used to represent the whole of China in the UN security council up until 1972.

For decades they claimed to be the legitimate government of the whole of China.

There has never been a debate in whether Taiwan is a part of China.

Both the government of Republic of China and the People's Republic of China claimed to be the legitimate governments of China.



The debate was always on who is the legitimate government of China.

Was it the government in the Republic of China thst only had the support of 23. 4 million Chinese governing from Taipei.

Or was the government of the People's Republic of China which has the support of 1.4 Billion Chinese governing from Beijing.

Some countries, only 9 now, recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan) as the legitimate government of China.



Other countries including the United States and about 189 other countries recognized the People's Republic of China as the legitimate government of the whole of China.


This has always been the debate.

No one ever recognized Taiwan as an independent country. Not even Taiwan itself.


Up until 1991 Taiwan was building up its armed forces to invade Mainland China.

For decades before that they used to carry out raids and air strikes on Mainland China with the goal of getting a foothold on Mainland China and then eventually to retake whole Mainland China.

They also used to carry out an insurgency into Mainland China from the jungles of Myanmar until the PLA and the Burmese military defeated them and run them out of there.

The Republic of China was founded in Mainland China.


The founder of the Republic of China in Taiwan greatest dream was the reunification of CHINA.

Before he died his last wish was to have his body sent to the Mainland to be burried there near his ancestors.

Mainland China does not have to invade Taiwan.

The Republic of China and the People's Republic of China are both a part of China and belong to the Chinese people all 1.5 Billion of them
and it is the overwhelming will of the Chinese people that they both should reunite.

How that reunification will take place. It's up to them. But if anyone tries to break China apart it will be the biggest mistake they will have ever made in their entire history. It's not going to end up well for them or their people in their home country

There is only a small minority of people in the Republic of China (Taiwan) who don't want to break away China. They are mainly of Japanese decent. A legacy left from Japanese colonialism.

They are about 2.3 million of them


If there are people in the Republic of China who don't want to be a part of China, they are free to pack up all their things and leave China.

They can go to Japan and become Japanese if they want so they can live under American hegemony as American tributary vassal state like if that is what they want so much

Taiwan is undefendable.


Taiwan imports almost 60% of its food to feed its people from abroad.

27% of that food comes directly from the Mainland

Taiwan imports almost 99% of its energy.

Even the Uranium used to power their nuclear reactors comes from abroad.

The PLA does not have to invade Taiwan.

All they have to do is do a blockade of the Island of Taiwan

All the PLA has to do is launch a blockade of Taiwan and in 2 to 3 weeks Taiwan will have a total energy blackout. All it's industries, factories, cities, homes, vehicles will run out of power and grind to a halt. Their economy will be completely destroyed.

In 2 to 3 months maximum they will face famine and starvation.


They don't have any natural resources or raw materials.


If you think the US can break a PLA blockade of Taiwan remember this

The US navy wasn't even able to break a Houthi blockade of Israel in the red sea for 11 months.

As a result 80% of all the shipping that used to go to Israel's largest port has ceased.

The only thing thst has saved Israel is that the Despicable Egyptian authorities have allowed Israel to use their 3 ports in the Mediterranean Sea which is out of reach of the Houthis.

The Houthis don't even have a navy or an Air force. All they have used are old anti ship missiles and $10 000 to $20 000 drones.


That alone has been able to chase away multi Billion dollar US warships armed with $1.4 million to $4 million missiles out to sea.

As a result the US navy and an entire flotilla of its tributary vassal states couldn't break the Houthis blockade of Israel in the red sea for 11 months.

Yet people in the United States still think the US navy could break a PLA blockade of Taiwan.


China could literally block out the sun over Taiwanese ports, airports and beaches with drones, missiles and artillery shells.

China could rain artillery in any part of Taiwan 24/7 over 365 days a year from its coastal regions.

They could mine all of Taiwans coast and use unmanned drones armed with explosives to sink any ship that tries to goes anywhere near Taiwan.

The only way the US could defeat China in a war against Taiwan is by invading Mainland China and occupying the Mainland.

Good luck with that one

Moreover if the US attacks the Chinese Mainland the Chinese have the ability and the weapons to strike deep and hard
into the United States against all American centers industrial, economic, population centers, military, air, naval army bases and political centers power in as little as 17 to 18 minutes.

The United States has no defenses against Chinese missiles

China industrial capacity is the largest in the world.

Chinas industrial capacity is larger than the next 9 countries combined.

China manufacturers 200x more shipping tonnage a year than the United States.

China manufactures 12x more steel than the United States.

China graduates 7x more Stems than the United States.

China's population is 4x larger than the United States.

If China goes to war it will mobilize its entire industrial capacity into full scale production.

They will out manufacture the United States in all sorts of weapons systems big and small into oblivion


They will mobilize tens of millions and tens of millions of men into the PLA..

Plus China will have Russia's support in natural resources, raw materials, additional military industrial manufacturing capacity, energy, food.

The United States does not have the industrial capacity to go head to head with China in the long term... It does not have the willing population to be mobilized for a a war of thst scale.

The United States is $35 Trillion in debt.

You people need to stop dreaming of fighting China over Taiwan.


Your politicians and experts mouths are writting cheques your country and your people can't cash.

Of course the Biden administration would commit troops to Taiwan. They are already in Taiwan training soldiers, along with working with Philippine troops in the Pacific.

Their best chance of sucess was last year. But it IS an inevitability. China WILL crumble if they don't secure their spot as a true superpower, and they know stealing IP isn't enough to continue to be a major player in power projection or even stability as a nation. Taiwan provides the infrastructure and strategic location they NEED to secure their future. Even if it means a massive setback in the present as a cost to secure it. I'm making this comment before watching the full video. Will update to see if this does align with what is said in the vid.

I lik the 25/25/50 political explanation....very valid point.........What are the odds that Taiwan would simply surrender if the other allies decide not to intervene knowing that China has them so outnumbered? Especially if the current admin gets reelected?

God forbid.

Will China INVADE Taiwan ? YEP !

as a person living in taiwan, I would say the portion that supports reunification with china is way below 25% (they still exists in a high profile) and both major parties are pretty much against it, just differs on how they'll do it. It's already a witch hunt in taiwan, where you're done for if someone claims you're a CCP sympathizer.
the problem of taiwan is that the public support to a potential war is low, and it's the top priority that the MoD currently trying to solve. Every male is conscripted into the military once they're old enough, and most of them have a negative impression about it. to be honest, people here DON'T RESPECT THE MILITARY. they make fun of them all the time, and people with proper education refuces to serve the long term.
we can talk about how much we want to defend our freedom on the internet, but when it takes your time and your money to help the nation doing so, how many of them will actually do? When you asked about whether did they serve in the military, they either did and hated it, or being proud of escaping from it successfully. They'd even rather buy scamming online course which sells first ait kit in the name of "defending taiwan from china", while the kit itself is made in and inported from china itself.
When a war approaches, would people stay and be ready for mobilization, risk being bombed in a drone factory, or flee before the first shot fired?
it's people that wins the war. lack of gas and oil? need ammunition? want better weapon? these might be possibly arranged somehow just like in Ukraine. but if the people have a wrong knowledge of the war and refuces to fight for it, it's over. The good thing is that they're working on it finally.

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How many countries have the U.S. invaded thus far?

China actually has plentiful rare earth minerals and a robust industry to extract them. however, I agree with you on the other resources though.

2025: It is generally agreed that China is unlikely to be fully prepared for an invasion by 2025. While China’s military buildup is rapid, many analysts believe that they would not have the level of logistical support and combat readiness needed for a successful large-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan within the next 1-2 years.

2026-2028: This period is often cited as a potential window for military action, with 2027 being a significant year for the People’s Liberation Army. In 2027, China will mark the centennial of the founding of the PLA (People’s Liberation Army), and there has been speculation that Xi Jinping may want to achieve significant military objectives, including the reunification of Taiwan, by then. By 2027, China is likely to have further developed its amphibious warfare capabilities, carrier strike groups, and improved air and missile systems, making an invasion more feasible from a purely military perspective. So if everything goes right for China I put my money on 2027.

Beyond 2028: I believe if China decides to delay beyond 2028, it would be due to political or heavy international factors, including economic stability, domestic unrest or relations with the U.S. and its allies. A longer timeline would also allow China to further modernize its forces and ensure greater confidence in a successful military campaign.

China will not invade anyone… it is the USA that wants conflict in the region…

US military is currently pushing DPP to announce Taiwan's independence That the time this announcement are made will be the time invasion start. US is planning a war at 2027 as mentioned multiple times from top Generals to defense white paper. So 2025 is not Very likely Unless DPP going for independence, But with US already setup the stage That the war should happen at 2027.

Katherine Mills

Thanks for your awesome assessment from your local 4j communist reeducation center.

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Taiwan is not a country.

Great content thank you!

I’m no racist, but whoever the idiots were that pushed this multiculturalism bullshit when I was growing up ruined this country. We have way to big a population of immigrants who have no desire to meld into the American culture and identity. You can’t have a strong nation with that going on. The common immigrant in the early 1900’s and 1800’s were Europeans who wanted to become an American. Not an Indian (just an example culture) who wanted to be an Indian in America. Shit ain’t working at all

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I’m admittedly very biased on this, being ethnically Han and an immigrant from Taiwan (technically first, but I identify as second-gen as I grew up in America from infancy). Still, Taiwan is a steadfast ally and a shining example of liberalism and democracy in Asia. It’s solidly pro-American and maintains strong ties with Japan, another close American ally that has openly committed to Taiwan's defense. Strategically, Taiwan is crucial in the first island chain and critical in preventing the PRC from establishing a dominant presence in the Pacific. I think it would be a terrible mistake to allow Taiwan to fight alone, as it would doubtlessly lose against the PRC without allies. It would also significantly degrade our reputation with our allies and send the wrong message that we are unreliable. That will permit the PRC to gain a considerably stronger position.

Only about 4% of Taiwanese identify as the same Chinese as those on the mainland. About 20% see themselves as RoC Chinese—mainly older KMT voters who are becoming increasingly marginalized. Around 25% view themselves solely as Taiwanese, with most of us Zoomers backing the DPP. The rest have a nuanced identity, blending RoC and Taiwanese affiliations.

Every man in Taiwan must also complete two years of military service between the ages of 20 and 22. The country has ramped up its investment in drone technology after closely observing its impact in the Ukraine war.

Mainland Chinese hold mixed views on Taiwanese people. I get countless death and SA threats on Twitter, and Wumao Brigades constantly harass and try to silence people. The more “well-meaning” mainlanders just think we’re brainwashed and act in a patronizingly condescending manner over it. That and think we try to act "white," their words not mine.

🙏

The hurricane damage in North Carolina occurred, and here and there Trump was making a smug noise, “Biden, what is Harris doing in such a difficult time? But, you know, with climate change, things that used to happen only rarely are now happening as a matter of course. But we should keep in mind that it is people like Trump who are making money by ignoring the environment that are causing these disasters. How can you say that we should drill, drill, drill for fossil fuels, oil, and natural gas, which are bad for the environment?

We had a chance to help China become non socialist but we chose not to in '49

Taiwan is not a country.

no China is resource rich,

It’s stated US foreign policy since 1971 that Taiwan is Under the jurisdiction of the People’s republic of China

It's both parties. When prices go up it's bad for whatever administration is in office, stuff from China ia cheap.

The CCP has demonstrated many times over their willingness to delete massive numbers of Chinese.

Great analysis

China is observing Russia atm..everything is unpredictable..I can't see Australia getting involved unless USA get involved..Australia would be hard to invade despite having a small military it's very advanced and I bet my bottom $$ they have nukelier war heads hidden in underground bunkers most likely where the USA base is..we have alot of America solders here in Oz in Darwin I think..

Since Trump got back in today anything could happen in the next few months 🙄🤔..