The Secret Formula to Win at Betting

Now i have gone for a subscriber to a patron member :)

Great job !!!!!! Super. Someone finally made this video

Fantastic video.

after watching this video i feel like i will never win football bet ever... the probability and some shit he said

great to use the expected value formula on this, but how do you calculate the probabilities of the outcomes is the real question in a sports bet.

Brilliant video, thank you. Don't bother with the background music, it distracts from what you're saying

Think I commented before on your vid I am mainly doing tennis trading under 2.5 strategy is one that I like very easy to understand and implement I did it on Man U v Leeds on Mon 4th 1st one I've done for ages only stayed in market for a bit as was doing screenshot to show someone about trading

top stuff! amazing explanation

Fascinating stuff Kie! I feel you’ve explained a pretty complex subject very well—given that it’s complicated! For me, given what you’ve said here, is about whether or not I’m prepared to sit and analyse data on games until the blood vessels in my eyes turn a deep shade of purple. But I can see how important it is not to go with ‘emotion’, i.e. that gut instinct that, say, L’Pool or Man C. will thrash most teams they play so go with them or, vice versa, the bottom of the table teams losing most of the time (which they probably will based on past performance) over the course of the 38 matches they play..

There’s clearly more science to trading than most of us can get our heads around but thank you for taking the time to help the less arithmetical of us to at least get a grip on why it’s important to stay calm, focused and then trade with logic and not emotion. Great video. Thank you. 👍

I'm just relieved that there are some smart kids out there, the future doesn't seem so bleak.

After using this equation, Barcelona still cut my ticket 😅

Nice video
I'm currently betting on draws and would love your view on this type of. Betting

So where there are 3 outcomes like soccer.. Which probability do you use for the draw part

Please help with the spreadsheet

Hi Kie, you young man seem to be very thorough in what you do, I can see you will go a long way. I like you just have some fun with sports betting but we all like to win and have an edge, mostly I don't like losing money. You need to make some real money selling PUT and CALL options (you may already be doing this). Look out for the wheel strategy to point you in the right direction. Markus Heitkoetter on You Tube.

Do you have EV (coin tossing experiment) excel to share with us?

So, great video Kie, ty. Do we have to pay you in order to download the expected value excel sheet? Tia

The eye staring 😐👀

How does your table turn color

how to find positive value Paulo rebelo, the famous football trader, always talked about this, a bet with a positive value

Great stuff, I’ve been looking at the over 0.5 goals in first half market and the stats seem to suggest that around 93% of 1st goals are scored at an average of 30mins with an average of around 7% of games with no goals. Do you think there is value in placing a standard bet across all games where odds at the start will be 1.5. I will look to backtest this.

in football there can be 3 results,....

the problem is now a days bookmakers are smart enough to play us out. the odds are pritty smart to disallow such things.

I love winning method and your correct score trick, please can l get the software on my phone

Is there anyway to find value bet when you are laying?

Expectation of X is most important, but how do you start? Well, in stock market trading, for example, you would record the number of wins against the number of loses eg, I win 60% and lose 40% of the time. Next, you determine the average amount won over the 60% (using a money management technique) and then adjust the average loss of 40% to bring up a positive expectation. You do this by adjusting the overall amount you are prepared to lose. Using a geometric money management technique, eg, dynamic fixed risk may be your best bet. Remember var(X), the market fluctuation, don't get stopped out due to market variance. Once you have a positive E(X), compound interest takes care of the rest. Good luck👍

Thank you sir

I see multiple people in the comment section using the term trading instead of gambling. Whatever makes you feel better, my fellow trading junkie.

How do you determine the true probability?

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Bro talking like a clone, ai or something 🤣🤣

Amazing video, really helps me understand how important positive EV is! One question at the moment, if I consistently place an in-play back bet 2 or more odds above the starting back odds for a favourite player/horse/team, will this result in positive EV and profit in the long run? Or does this frequently only really result in roughly breakeven profit, since the gains are minimal due to variance?

I just came across this video is this value betting?

you're basically saying that you think you know the percentages better than the bookmakers. might as well just guess

can we have/buy a copy of that excel calculator?

When you came to sheet, you just confused everyone who was trying to understand the concept.. like bro.. you pick the team and add 5% probability it will win and take other 2 options -5% so your EV jumps to green.. but I can take bookies odds as well and from 20% probability make 70% probabilty because I think there is the probability so my value jumps to positive EV again.. its just guessing like classic betting.. formula useless in this scenario.. you need to explain why you put 5% probability to one outcome and take 5% from other outcome.. otherwise it doesnt make any sense. When you said ,,you should know" it means ,,you guess the bet" so EV is not real concept. We Can go back to guessing and try to find best odds for what we think is going to win. Thats it.. only arbitrage is accurate working concept.. might be EV as well. But this is not explained very well.. sorry

Hi Kie. The formula is fair enough, but is it not easier to just know all odds as percentages? When looking at the market I see the odds immediately as percentages. eg If Tottenham are 4/6, Brentford are 4/1 and the draw is 3/1 then I immediately see those odds as 4/6 = 60%, 4/1 = 20% and 3/1 = 25%. With 60 + 20 + 25 = 105% bookies working to 105% overround.... which doesn't at first glance look promising. if I've worked out the form and believe Tottenham have a 52% (fair 10/11) chance, Brentford 25% (fair 3/1) and the draw 23% (fair 100/30)... Then it is immediately obvious that imo Brentford are a good bet @ 4/1 and being 5% better than 3/1... For staking I could use the Kelly Critereon but I prefer my own staking method which tells me:

7.5% of my betting bank is wagered @ 4/1.

gracias

Great explanation! I'm looking to make sure I understand how to expand this to Double Chance betting - that is, calculated expected value of a Double Chance Bet (either Home and Draw or Away and Draw). I think I have it but was looking for some resource to make sure. Haven't really found it. Wondering if anyone here can address.

Parlay or Straight Betting or Money line ?!

Holy shit 😮

Interesting that you have to wait until 903 for the to come right. You need patience in this game. Many people give up too soon.

Variance. Pittsburgh Phil one of the best gamblers once said he had the worst run of loses on the horse fallowed by his best run ever. 😮

Its so easy to make that spreadsheet,,who wants to buy from me?😂

But they never win more

U should add kelly criterion to this

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